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05-Oct-2019 07:33

It provides a comprehensive description of the evolving characteristics of these operations and studies their impact on debtors.The progressive introduction of new terms of treatment gradually turned the Paris Club from an institution primarily concerned with preserving creditors’ claims into an instrument to foster development in the world’s poorer nations, among other objectives.The SI model can better explain a persistent and volatile current account than the RE model but it overpredicts the persistence of changes in consumption.The SI model extended with imperfect capital mobility almost fully explains current account dynamics and the persistence of changes in consumption, if high degrees of information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility are taken into account.With trend inflation set at historical values, the peak occurs at around 2 years.Delayed overshooting is a consequence of the interaction between heterogeneity in price stickiness and trend inflation.

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For the medium-term business cycle frequency (Comin and Gertler, 2006), we find that while some correlations exhibit the same change as the business cycle counterparts, others do not.

Our results are robust to forecast combinations, intercept corrections, alternative transformations of the target variable, different lag structures, and additional tests of (conditional) predictability.

We argue that the RW-AO model is successful among EMEs because it is a straightforward method to downweight later data, which is a useful strategy when there are unknown structural breaks and model misspecification.

The RE model extended with imperfect capital mobility by Shibata and Shintani (1998) can account for persistent changes in consumption, but only at the cost of the explanatory power for the volatility of the current account.

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This paper replaces RE in the intertemporal current account model with sticky information (SI) in which consumers are inattentive to shocks to their income and infrequently adjust their consumption.

These “new stylized facts” suggest that a reconsideration and refinement of existing “macro-housing” theories would be appropriate.



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